The PoC project addresses a significant gap in Serbia’s economic landscape by providing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with innovative tools to predict short-term market movements, a critical factor in navigating a volatile environment. SMEs face heightened risks from market shocks due to their limited resources for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.
The project introduces an Industrial Early Warning Composite Index (IEWCI) and a web-based platform, leveraging machine learning to predict market trends and allowing companies to adjust operations accordingly.
The invention lies in the combination of traditional economic indicators, such as GDP, exports, and industrial production data, with advanced machine learning algorithms to generate more accurate and timely predictions. Machine learning, particularly Random Forest models, was applied to identify the most influential indicators for forecasting, offering improved predictive accuracy over traditional statistical models. This enables businesses to predict market movements (such as rising or falling industrial production) with minimal error, enhancing their ability to adapt operations proactively.
The novelty of the project is in creating a machine learning-based composite index specifically tailored to Serbian industries, which, to the best of the team’s knowledge, has not been implemented before. The web platform further supports this innovation by offering a user-friendly interface for businesses to input data and receive forecasts. The platform is initially offered free for one month, followed by a paid subscription model, creating a clear pathway to market.
The application of the project’s results is far-reaching. By providing SMEs with real-time, data-driven insights into market movements, the platform helps them make informed decisions on inventory management, production adjustments, and market strategies. This predictive capability can significantly reduce the risks of being caught off guard by market changes, resulting in potential cost savings and higher profitability. Furthermore, adapting to market trends more effectively gives businesses a competitive edge over companies relying on subjective decision-making, thereby increasing their market success.
