To mark the International Day of Older Persons, a conference entitled “My Future – Whose Responsibility? An Inclusive Society for All (Part III)” was held to discuss ways to improve the well-being, social inclusion and protection of older persons, as well as the future of ageing-related policies. Vladimir Nikitović, Principal Research Fellow and a member of the Governing Board of the Institute of Social Sciences, participated in the first panel, entitled “From Demographic Trends to Public Policy Action: Improving the Well-Being and Protection of Older Persons in Serbia.”
One of the questions addressed to Dr Nikitović was how his research is contributing to a better understanding of population ageing in Serbia and its social and economic implications.
“Population ageing and its consequences can be better understood by looking beyond chronological age to consider life expectancy, educational attainment and labour force participation. This provides a clearer picture of the challenges ahead, as well as the opportunities for policy intervention.
“First, the scale of demographic change in Serbia is considerable. Between the 2011 and 2022 censuses, the population aged 15–64 declined by almost 688,000, while the number of people aged 65 and over increased by approximately 218,000. The oldest age groups are growing particularly rapidly: the population aged over 85 was 44 per cent larger than at the previous census. This trend also translates into a growing need for care, healthcare services and day-to-day support. These changes, however, are not evenly distributed across the country. They are most pronounced in parts of southern and eastern Serbia and in many rural areas, where population ageing is compounded by emigration and population decline. In these areas, support often needs to reach people living far from essential services and family members alike.
When assessing the long-term implications of these changes, it is also important to consider how age is measured. Conventionally, everyone aged 65 and over is classified as part of the older population. Although useful for statistical comparisons, this threshold does not adequately capture differences between generations. A person who is 65 today may have a different remaining life expectancy, educational background and range of opportunities for an active life than someone of the same age several decades ago. For this reason, our analysis also adopted a prospective approach, which defines age in terms of remaining life expectancy. As life expectancy increases, the threshold used to define old age shifts accordingly. Our projections suggest that, assuming life expectancy continues to increase, the ratio of the older population to the population below this shifting age threshold could stabilise after 2030. By contrast, indicators based on the fixed threshold of 65 years continue to rise. This distinction is important because it demonstrates how assessments of future demographic challenges depend on the assumptions and measurement methods applied.
Another important finding concerns education and labour force participation. Generations entering older age are better educated than previous generations, creating greater opportunities for extended careers, lifelong learning and a range of other forms of social contribution. The relationship between those participating in the labour force and those who are economically inactive is particularly important when assessing the economic implications of population ageing. Our projections suggest that gradually bringing labour force participation rates closer to current EU levels could significantly ease the anticipated pressures on Serbia’s labour force. There is considerable scope to increase participation among women, young people and older workers. Realising this potential requires more accessible childcare and care services for dependent family members, better health, opportunities for further training and working conditions adapted to people’s abilities. Extending working lives makes sense only when accompanied by safeguards for people’s health and rights and respect for their freedom to choose”, explained our colleague Vladimir Nikitović.
He also stressed that demographic trends set the framework for the future, while public policies largely determine how society responds to them. By investing in health, education and more equitable opportunities throughout life, Serbia can both mitigate the economic consequences of population ageing and improve the well-being of people in later life.
