Estimation of perceived corruption effect on economic growth in Serbia via an ARDL-ECM model

It is honor to invite you to attend a lecture of our colleague Vasko Kelić as part of the cycle of lectures by new researchers at the Institute of Social Sciences.

The lecture will be dedicated to the effect of corruption and other selected relevant variables on economic growth in Serbia between 1998 and 2022. In order to estimate the effect in question, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), along with the associated error-correction mechanism model (ECM), were applied.

Along with the corruption variable, which is based on the values of Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index (CPI), model comprises the following variables: lagged values of GDP per capita, gross fixed capital investment, public expenditure as a percentage of GDP, and various kinds of proxy variables for human capital. Contrary to expectations, obtained results from several model specifications show statistically significant effect of corruption on economic growth in Serbia, which suggests the existence of certain mechanisms postulated by the ,,greasing the wheels” hypothesis.

The aim of this lectures is promoting new researchers and familiarization with their previous work.

The lecture will be held on December 5, 2023, in the Great Hall of the Institute of Social Sciences, at 12:00 a.m.

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Јавни конкурс за попуњавање радног места – директор Института друштвених наука

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30. 11. 2022.

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